What is the likelihood that the Russian side will end this war or at least agree to a ceasefire?
1. If a senior Russian officer/politician shoots Putin.
2. If an important pillar of Russian society, such as the church, finally speaks out against the war.
3. If enough Russians take to the streets.
4. If the Russian economy collapses in some form.
5. If the willpower of the Russian army collapses.
Russia in the sense of its official institutions, i.e. police, judiciary, prisons, military and politics on a national level, is a fucked-up society. Violence is baked into those instituions, and quite a few Russians (mainly the older generations) have been turned into silent zombies in front of their TV-sets. Russian propaganda sadly works quite well, at least well enough for this war to already last two months. Either enough Russians keep accepting this war and their country will become a huge North Korea, or we'll soon see the dawn of a new Russia, a modern Russia, a Russia with less of that violence.
Russia is the last of the "old" European/ Eurasian empires. Maybe this invasion, this crazy war could be the beginning of the end.