After the retreat outside Kyiv, Putin's anti-climactic speech on May 9th looks like a second turning point in the Ukraine war. Apart from almost empty phrases he has said little and basically announced a melancholic "business-as-usual" of this war.
The Donbas offensive is now barely moving (Popasna a rare victory for Putin so far), will however proceed slowly for a few more weeks before the Russian army is exhausted and a major Ukrainian counter-offensive could start in about four to six weeks.
But of course, surprises can happen. Can the Ukrainians cut the line between Belgorod and Izium? Could anything happen in the Black Sea?